UFC 94 ST-PIERRE VS PENN 2

[Jim]

Discuss / Predict.


Georges St-Pierre Vs. BJ Penn

Lyoto Machida Vs. Thiago Silva

Stephan Bonnar Vs. Jon Jones

Karo Parisyan Vs. Dong Hyun Kim

Nate Diaz Vs. Clay Guida

Jon Fitch Vs. Akihiro Gono

[Clint]

St. Pierre over Penn
Silva over Machida
Bonnar over Jones
Parisyan over Kim
Guida over Diaz
Fitch over Gono

[Jim]

Georges St-Pierre Vs. BJ Penn
I just can't not pick BJ. I'll be miserable for days if he doesn't win. Last time they met, BJ schooled GSP until he gassed. He can make anyone look like a complete amateur and oozes charisma. He's great at selling a fight but also a cool dude outside of the media spotlight. GSP is incredible, an amazing athlete who has worked incredibly hard - but I've never warmed to him really.

Lyoto Machida Vs. Thiago Silva
Silva will press, Machida will back away and counter punch to a decision. Again.

Stephan Bonnar Vs. Jon Jones
If Bonnar doesn't win he might as well call it quits.

Karo Parisyan Vs. Dong Hyun Kim
Karo always has good fights. he's also a complete dickhead but nevermind. Should be good.

Nate Diaz Vs. Clay Guida
I don't like Nate. He's a gangly awkward dude and I can't tell if he's actually any good. Guida is always full on so I'm hoping [rather than expecting] him to win.

Jon Fitch Vs. Akihiro Gono
This should be on the main card. Gono is entertaining and was good 5 years ago. Fitch will take this relatively comfortably.

[James]

Georges St-Pierre Vs. BJ Penn
* I honestly can't pick a winner... Both have jumped leaps and bounds ahead of where they were when they fought the first time. Ultimately I think it comes down to B.J.'s gas tank compared to GSP's.

Lyoto Machida Vs. Thiago Silva
God I hope Silva wins or Machida shows up to finish rather than run away to a boring decision win.

Stephan Bonnar Vs. Jon Jones
Pretty much agree with you, Jim, if Bonnar doesn't win here he's likely out of UFC and back to the minors/out of the sport. Quite a contrast when you compare the years since the 1st TUF tournament between Griffin and Bonnar. One went on to become one of UFC's top young stars of the present and future, while the other has lost fights and been suspended because of roids.

Don't really care about the rest.

Karo > DHK (meh)
Diaz > Guida (only because Guida puts on good fights, he doesn't win them though)
Fitch > Gono (he better win, I'm sure Dana will enjoy trying to fuck with him if he loses)

[Mike Falconi]

Georges St-Pierre Vs. BJ Penn
I pick GSP because I honestly the dominant in the WW division GSP impresses me far more than the dominant in the LW division Penn. Since the first fight GSP thouroughly imposed his will on 3 impressive wrestlers(Kos, Hughes, and Fitch) along with pounding out a BJJ black belt(Serra) he did lose to Serra in there too. BJ has lost to Hughes and beaten an old Pulver, a still not near his prime Stevenson, and a Sherk that had been on the shelf due to a suspension for almost a year.

Lyoto Machida Vs. Thiago Silva
I like both fighters but I think Lyoto Machida wins because of what works for him which is his ability to avoid getting hit. Some people call it boring but it works and he gets wins.

Stephan Bonnar Vs. Jon Jones
Ive got Bonner on this one.

Karo Parisyan Vs. Dong Hyun Kim
If Karo didn't lose his last fight I'd pick Kim because Karo has this odd thing where when he is getting close to sniffing a title shot he either loses or gets injured. The loss to Alves knocked him back so I think we will see a Karo with something to prove.

Nate Diaz Vs. Clay Guida
I pick Diaz because he impresses me more than Guida. So if you are making your bets be sure to bet on Guida because when I pick him he loses and when I pick against him he wins.

Jon Fitch Vs. Akihiro Gono
As much as the PRIDE lover in me wants to see Gono win I think that Fitch is going to impose his will. It took GSP to break Fitch's unbeaten in UFC streak. I think Fitch wins this one definately.

[thebrotherssmith]

Nate Diaz Vs. Clay Guida
I don't like Nate. He's a gangly awkward dude and I can't tell if he's actually any good. Guida is always full on so I'm hoping [rather than expecting] him to win.

You know he's good. He's got reach, and we won't blow up like Danzig did. If Guida gets too comfortable in his ground and pound, he'll end up in Nate's world and get caught with a submission.

Nate is still pretty untested but I think this is his coming out fight.

[James]

Lyoto Machida Vs. Thiago Silva
I like both fighters but I think Lyoto Machida wins because of what works for him which is his ability to avoid getting hit. Some people call it boring but it works and he gets wins.

Which is why he will never get a title shot. Dana White will always find an excuse to put someone just ahead of him (in this case, Rampage beats Jardine, you have Evans' first title defense, unless Silva actually beats Machida). The truth (as far as I see it anyway) is that Machida becoming champion of UFC's premier division is a nightmare to Dana. The guy can't speak English and is a boring kick and run fighter, you don't put that guy in position to be the ace of the division. You use him as the ultimate gatekeeper and assassin of anyone you want to make prove themselves. I bet you anything the man who does beat Machida (depending on it happening in UFC) will instantly be given a title shot with all the hype of being the guy who ended Machida's long and undefeated record.

[Jim]

Which is why he will never get a title shot. Dana White will always find an excuse to put someone just ahead of him (in this case, Rampage beats Jardine, you have Evans' first title defense, unless Silva actually beats Machida). The truth (as far as I see it anyway) is that Machida becoming champion of UFC's premier division is a nightmare to Dana. The guy can't speak English and is a boring kick and run fighter, you don't put that guy in position to be the ace of the division. You use him as the ultimate gatekeeper and assassin of anyone you want to make prove themselves. I bet you anything the man who does beat Machida (depending on it happening in UFC) will instantly be given a title shot with all the hype of being the guy who ended Machida's long and undefeated record.

If he wins, he's getting the shot. Dana was talking him up HUGE the other day. If they leave it until after Jardine/Rampage [which makes NO sense as a fight at all] then it leaves a long lay-off for Evans. At most, Machida will have one more fight before his title shot [assuming he wins both] and that is only because, as you said, they will desperately want for him to look exciting.

And Matt, I know Diaz is 'good'. He's decent enough to beat 'decent' people but I don't think he's had a tough fight yet. And, well, Guida looks way cooler.

[Jon Parker]

Georges St-Pierre Vs. BJ Penn
I gotta take Rush in this one. Since his loss to Serra, he's just become a beast at 170. Not to take anything away from BJ, but i just don't see anyone taking out GSP in his current weight division. But the great thing about MMA is: it can all change in just one second. I expect a great fight, but i see GSP taking this one home.

Lyoto Machida Vs. Thiago Silva
I expect to see Lyoto get pushed hard in this one, but still come out in the end with a win. I hope i'm wrong, because Silva is just an exciting athlete to watch, but as Mikey said, Machida makes it work for him.

Stephan Bonnar Vs. Jon Jones
I don't really know enough about Jones (haven't done my proper research), but i do know that Bonnar is a warrior. if it's someone they are putting up against him, i expect an exciting fight, but aside from that, i won't make a pic with an unknown commodity.

Karo Parisyan Vs. Dong Hyun Kim
Karo takes this one if his head is back on right. He's had his share of problems recently, from injuries to a loss to psychological issues. I expect a little rust, but then i expect to see a great judo throw into a submission win for Parisyan

Nate Diaz Vs. Clay Guida
I...HATE...Nate Diaz. I believe him and his brother are the image of what this sport has tried to separate itself from. That said, they work their asses off though. Gotta give credit where it is due, and the Diaz brothers definitely don't slouch it out. BUT...Guida is a little monster himself. I just love the energy that this guy brings with him. Sure, it looks like he's been tagged perennial gatekeeper, but if he can string a few together, he's back in the main mix. I think he'll know that, and i expect to see him take Nate out of this one and make him look like the bitch that Nate always makes others out to be. Nate won't be flipping him off as he chokes him out in this one. He's just gonna be fucked as he gets pounded on.

Jon Fitch Vs. Akihiro Gono
Fitch. He showed the world that he could hang with GSP (even if he didn't really come all that close). And ya gotta admit, GSP seemed a little timid a couple ofrounds when he saw that Fitch just wouldn't stop coming. Plus, the UFC really pissed him off when they made asses out of themselves because of a video game. I think Fitch is gonna find a way to say "Fuck you! I'm going back to the top for another title shot!" and it's gonna start with Gono.

[Paul]

Gotta go with the Canadian.

After that, I have no clue.

[thebrotherssmith]

Georges St-Pierre Vs. BJ Penn
I honestly couldn't tell you who will win this. It's too close. I'll say GSP - just because I think BJ might not have adjusted to fighting at 170... i think that's a serious jump.

Lyoto Machida Vs. Thiago Silva
I pray for a Silva knockout - but I think Machida's defence and counter punching is too advanced.

Stephan Bonnar Vs. Jon Jones
This is a wildcard. Bonnar might get knockedthefuckoutson. I wouldn't mind seeing it either. I'll go w/ the up and comer here.

Karo Parisyan Vs. Dong Hyun Kim
I can't pick Karo... I dislike him on too many levels.Let's see if he's the judoka in the world - as Kim looks legit.

Nate Diaz Vs. Clay Guida
This is his coming out party. This is when people start talking about Nate as the future of the division. With Nick is his corner, how do you not pick this guy? I dont think he'll be at all bothered by Guida's pace - and I expect this to be the fight of the night. Why so much hate on young Nate - the guy isn't a bull shitter. Over/Under on how many times he cusses in the post fight? 4?

Jon Fitch Vs. Akihiro Gono
Fitch should win this hands down.

[bw301]

If you want to watch it and don't feel like paying:

http://www.justin.tv/mmatvwmr

[Mike Falconi]

WAR GSP

[Jon Parker]

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yay. i went 5-0-1 on my pics. the only flaw was i didn't pick a winner for the bonnar v. jones fight. oh well. great night of fights. Jones was the most refreshing performance i've seen in a while...just so much unorthodox stuff. GSP DOMINATED. I'm ubber glad that i didn't get to see Nate enjoy a win. not only because i dislike him so much, but because i also am a huge fan of Guida.

[Clint]

Jesus. I got owned in these picks.

Didn't figure Machida would finish a fight, first off. I'm not upset about it, because I think he's a great fighter, I just thought he'd slip up here.

I didn't know a lot about Jones going into the fight, and round one he looked like a beast. Bonnar showed his chin and his tank tonight, though, and I think he'll still get a couple of fights in. Needs to turn things around, though.

Kim had the fight won, in my opinion. Don't like the split, and don't like it going to Karo. I had Kim in the first, Kim got the edge in the second, and Karo took the third.

I love Clay Guida, seriously. He's the only guy besides Penn and GSP that had any kind of personalized crowd reaction, and I can't wait to see his next fight.

And my GOD, GSP crushed Penn for 15 minutes straight, and it was glorious. I want some kind of alternate universe where GSP, Silva, Faber, and Fedor are all the same weight class, and then I can have a round robin tournament with the four of them and determine the best P4P fighter in the world. That said, I'd say Silva's still #1, but GSP jumped Fedor to #2.

Also, in April, if Shogun doesn't fix his cardio from the Coleman (HAMMERHOUSE) fight, he'll lose to Chuck.

[Jim]

That felt like I was watching my dad get beaten up.

GSP is a freak. I'd put him above Silva in the P4P rankings simply because he's shown that he doesn't need to rely on one facet of his game.

Machida looked amazing, they clearly want Rashad vs Rampage which means Machida will have to make someone else look stupid, but man, why wait?

Jones looked like a star for the first round or two.

Karo looked like some dude who wandered into the Octagon from the street which was sad.

I hope BJ doesn't take it badly, he looked mentally broken down.

[Jim]

Greasegate!

[thebrotherssmith]

We need a scoring outline for MMA in order to know what the judges look for. This blind scoring needs to fuckin' stop.

No love for Defence it would appear - and whoever holds or seems to be in control always wins?

Whatever - Say what you want, Nate Diaz is the ultimate heel - this guy was booed in weigh ins, during his entrance, after he lost, etc.

Clay Guida is a chimpanzee, who won the crowd vote, and basically just hopped on Nate's back, and did NO damage at all. Nate was never in trouble - and Nate boxed Clay's face off. Anytime Clay tried to muscle diaz, he showed poise by avoiding, or going for a submission.

This decision = fail.

Kim vs. Karo

lol @ Karo winning. What?

Again, maybe I missed something, but IMo that decision was fuckin' awful. Good thing I didnt lay any juice on this one.
Karo is a shell of his former self, and shouldn't be brought back until he improves.

[Jon Parker]

okay, the guida and diaz fight was never a doubt. Nate did not box his face off. He got in a few good shots in the opening moments of round 3. other than that, guida was doing a good job avoiding and blocking his strikes, getting inside and landing a few of his own. Guida controlled the tempo of the fight. Diaz did nothing in round 2, and i'll give you this: neither did Guida. But guida had the dominant position, being on Diaz's back.

Round 1 was a no brainer: Guida owned Diaz in that round. Round 2 could have gone either way: if you look at overall control and agression, then Guida took it. if you look at it from a standpoint of Diaz allowed him nothing with it, then Diaz won (however, defense is not part of the scoring criteria, but agression and control are). And if you look at round 3, Diaz started out strong, but Guida ended up getting him down and pushing the action on thr ground, another area where the BJJ black belt should have had a better chance. Guida looked better on the feet with the exception of round 3's opening moments, he controlled all of the action on the ground, and he never let up in his attack.

Guida, by a no brainer. The fact that it was split was mind boggling. me and my whole team were floored that anybody would have given that fight to diaz.

[Jon Parker]

note: by defense is not part of the scoring criteria, i did not mean that "the judges ignore defense." what i meant was that when one fighter is on the offense and one is on defense and they are nullifying each other, the one on offense will usually win.

Matt Serra vs Chris Lytle is a great example. I hated that decision going to Serra, but it is a textbook case of "effective striking, grappling, aggression, and octagon control." Neither had effective striking or grappling. The fight was against the cage the whole time, with Serra pushing Lytle, so Serra won it by aggression and control.

The same with round 2 of diaz vs. guida. Strikes were virtually non existent. Grappling rarely happened. Sure, Nate got it down a few times, but it wasn't considered effective grappling because he never took advantage of it. Guida maintained controlling the back the entire round.

[Jim]

UFC 95 was a good show. I always figured the matches would be exciting, the live atmosphere was probably the worst I've been to, there just wasn't anyone to get really excited about seeing/wanting to win.

Paul Kelly and Terry Etim look like they could really do something if they continue to progress.

Lots of dubious earlyish stoppages throughout.